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That was the reckoning provided yesterday during a sneak peek at some CEA research offered by analysts Shawn DuBravac and Steve Koenig at a session during Day One of the New York City-held CEA Line Shows.
All the numbers will be conclusively crunched by July 15 for the semi-annual forecast, but the duo provided a look at some preliminary conclusions already inferred from data supplied by its vendor membership and its executive advisory panel.
“So far, it seems the optimists are in the forefront” among the panel, Koenig said. While 2009 growth projections by the group are tracking at -0.5 percent, projected growth for 2010 is tracking at +2.9 percent. “The first quarter of 2009 was abysmal, the second showed signs of life, the third is showing lots of hope and there is great anticipation for the fourth quarter,” he commented. “We think the end is near; things are improving,” echoed DuBravac.
Some highlights from the presentation:
• Holiday 2009 expectations will be low by historical standards, but much improved over 2008 expectations.
• The volume is still there in flat-panel TV – up 32 percent YTD in units with revenues down 6 to 7 percent, because consumers are seeking lower prices and smaller screen sizes to fill secondary digital TV needs.
• At the start of 2008, sales of over-40-inch sets accounted for over 50 percent of all TV sales and today, just 39 percent sold are over 40 inches.
• Private-label TVs (like Best Buy’s Insignia brand) are gaining popularity and putting pressure on incumbent brands.
• Home audio sound bar unit shipments are a “nascent opportunity” in audio, for an immersive sound experience; the category is up 40 percent YTD.
• Blu-ray players have done well, but prices have declined 47 percent over the first 24 months they’ve been on the market, and by summer’s end we could see price points dip to $179 and perhaps hit a base of $99 for the holidays.
• The ‘netbooks’ category – the product category between smartphones and full notebook computers – has come on fast and should double in unit sales this year.
• Internet-enabled displays and 3D TV are both coming to the fore as viable home entertainment technologies.
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